Value Betting Strategy Making The Most of Your Bets

Accurately analyzing the odds in every situation will give you a better chance of success and greater profits in the long run. This is done automatically for you when using the value betting software by RebelBetting. To determine whether a bet is a value bet or not, you must look at the decimal odds and compare it to the true probability of a certain event occurring. Oddsmakers will quickly take lines down or adjust them in the event of breaking news that impacts the game, such as an injury or trade. And similar to how they’re not perfect as creating lines due to finite resources, they’re not perfect as adjusting them, either.

College sports have thousands of games across multiple conferences. Soccer has hundreds of games across dozens of countries, not to mention less popular sports like golf, tennis, MMA, and more. But there’s also line movement from the money placed on the game.

If you win, your return would be €11, and if you lose, you lose €10. OddsJam makes it easy to track your bets while providing insights into your success rate over time. The odds of rolling a number between 1 and 19 are 19 in 20, or 95%. As such, the fair odds for rolling a 20 would be +1,900, and fair odds for rolling 1–19 would be about -1,900. Now, is it realistic to expect that any bookie will give Manchester City odds of 1/1 against Ipswich? Value bets are bets that you think have better odds than what the bookie has priced them at.

How Do I Deal With a Losing Streak?

In that case, your EV would be around $5, even if you overestimated your win probability. This means that the player could potentially make a profit in the long run if they can find enough value bets. Value betting is an important skill in sports betting, as it allows players to gain an edge over the bookmakers and maximize their profits. It takes a lot of hard work to become an expert in a category, always think in probabilities, and find good value betting opportunities. That said, you now have the knowledge and the tools necessary to find positive expected value in betting.

Bets showing 5-15% overvalue might offer consistent profits with lower risk. Expected Value (EV) quantifies the long-term profit or loss potential of your betting decisions. By developing your understanding of EV, it will transform your betting from guesswork into mathematical strategy. When real probability exceeds implied probability, you’ve found a value bet, with this discrepancy forming the cornerstone of profitable betting strategies.

At some point you just have to let go and have faith in your preparation. Value betting is an advanced strategy that can certainly bring profits, but it is not a golden ticket to guaranteed success at the bookies. It requires a high volume of bets, a substantial amount of time, and, above all, spotting value bets. According to most experts, value betting is one of the most reliable strategies.

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In the end, reality happens and the game is played with all the uncertainties that humans bring and cards do not. Pace of Play has become an advanced stat that more and more recreational bettors are becoming aware of. This stat is important as it tells you how many possessions each team is having per game.

• To determine whether a bet is a value bet or not, you must look at the decimal odds and compare it to the true probability of a certain event occurring.
• You’ll find that using RebelBetting to find value bets is neither difficult nor time-consuming.
• But we estimate (well, in this example, we know) that the probability for a coin landing heads is 50%.
• This example illustrates why most sports bettors are not profitable.

This betting style is the closest thing to following what you get is telling you. Confidence betting comes with experience, so you see this strategy employed by bettors with a deep knowledge of a particular market, team, or individual players. These bettors can tell you immediately about new updates like roster changes, injuries, weather, recent past performances, and historical data.

However, in reality, it would be outlandish not to know that the probability of the Citizens winning this match at the Etihad is likely around 90%. Now, the idea behind the value betting strategy is to try and consistently find such opportunities. While betting on such value events does not necessarily mean guaranteed success, if done consistently, it should, over time, lead to long-term profitability.

For our purposes here, what’s important is that the method helps you adjust your bet size depending on the percentage EV that you have. Likewise, you can size your Kelly bets to the full equation or some fraction of it depending on your confidence in a single bet or the entire projection source. Kelly Criterion betting allows you to make the most of EV and to lower your risk a bit in scenarios where the edge is present but smaller. The next thing to do when using the Column Betting strategy is to pick your columns in advance, and create a sequence out of them.

Though you have a 50/50 chance of winning your bet, you could still run into a losing streak. Don’t chase losses; stick with your betting units, and take a break from your session when you run into back-to-back losses. Don’t fall into the trap of trying to recoup your money by upping your subsequent few bets. If bookmakers find that you’re consistently getting a good closing line value (CLV), they might restrict how much you can bet using their sportsbooks. Some gamblers get banned outright if they continually rake in win after win. Getting a good closing line value means that you beat the sportsbook and got a better price than what the bet closed at.

But how do you determine which projections to use, and, more importantly, whether to go higher or lower? Well, if you want to make money over the long term, you’ll need to find lines with positive expected value (+EV). Claim Your FREE Month of Portfolio EVUnlock a full month of our premium betting tool just by signing up with a sportsbook promo. In a 1738 article, Daniel Bernoulli suggested that, when one has a choice of bets or investments, one should choose that with the highest geometric mean of outcomes. This is mathematically equivalent to the Kelly criterion, although the motivation is different (Bernoulli wanted to resolve the St. Petersburg paradox).

It involves using a specialised value betting software that finds all the value bets for you, as well as calculates the optimal stake you should use for each value bet top optimize bankroll growth. Identifying value bets manually means the bettor should look at the form of the team, the current lineup, weather conditions, likelihood of injuries and other factors that could affect the outcome. By doing this research and carefully analyzing the market, the bettor can identify when the odds are better than they should be and make a value bet. To take advantage of value betting you can either pinup casino analyze the markets and odds yourself, or, use a software that is specialised and built for this exact purpose. The main benefit of using a bespoke software is that it will greatly simplify every part of the process for you – enabling you to make a larger profit in less time than if done manually.

Therefore, it is essential to practice good bankroll management and set realistic expectations. Ultimately, whether value betting is worth it or not depends on the individual and their willingness to put in the effort. Value bets need a positive expected value (EV) for knowledgeable bettors to see these selections worth their time and money.

These opportunities offer positive expected value, making them profitable over time despite individual bet outcomes. We can get an idea for how often something happens by building models that take a possible range of outcomes and compare them to the average or mean outcomes. You can try playing out scenarios or different variations or variables on a sports game and seeing how they would affect the model (known as a regression), but those are always assumptions. We can only input our own assumptions about sports, teams and players before the actual sporting event.

In the early days, you might only get a points over-under on a superstar. Nowadays, the books post lines on everything from points to turnovers to all sorts of weird stat combos for each and every player on the court. Similarly, in poker, a player can study the odds and identify situations where they have an edge over their opponents, thus increasing their chances of winning. Value betting is a universal technique that can be applied to a variety of different forms of gambling. Using a betting software instead of finding value bets manually will greatly increase your profit and ROI.

Outside of losing bets, sports betting doesn’t always go smoothly due to other risks you might experience using online sportsbooks. We’ll highlight the primary risks to remember, even after placing great, quality bets on your betting slip. Value betting is when a player receives better odds than they should on the outcome of an event. For example, a coin flip always has a 50% chance of landing on heads or tails. The true odds on each side should be even money, or +100 (bet $100 to win $100).